The long-awaited UFO report has more questions than answers
On June 25, 2021, the US intelligence community released its long-awaited report into UFOs (unidentified flying objects) or, in a desperate attempt to own a new acronym, UAPs (unidentified aerial phenomena).
The report (which you can read in full here, via CNN) says that 143 witnessed phenomena from recent decades cannot be identified, but camera errors can be discounted. So there are things flying around, many near the US Navy’s main Pacific base in San Diego, California, and they have been seen by well-trained, experienced, level-headed military pilots.
Occam’s Razor can help guide us towards an explanation
Occam’s Razor says that the simplest explanation for something is usually correct. So here’s our review of the three leading, possible explanations for these UFOs and how they rate, according to Occam.
1. The UFOs are alien spacecraft
Considering that our nearest star is 4.5 light years away, a spacecraft travelling at almost light speed would take at least 4.5 years to get here. Unless the aliens had a totally different perception of time (which is possible), there would be little reason to take a 9 year round-trip to a distant planet just to buzz around a naval base. It just doesn’t make sense. Could they be alien tourists, thrillseekers in for a quick peek? Maybe there’s a huge alien cruise ship hiding in orbit, and they pop down in launches to get closer to the funny-looking aliens (us)? Doesn’t ring true. Even more implausibly, could there be an alien civilisation in our solar system, and they’re keeping an eye on us in case we want to take our colonialist tendencies beyond Earth (looking at you, Elon!)? Finally, if aliens have achieved faster-than-light travel so they can zip over to us instantaneously from anywhere in the Universe, they would be so beyond our understanding of reality it’s hard to see how we’d be able to take videos of them.
Occam rating: Highly unlikely.
2. The UFOs are secret US tech
Area 51 in Nevada was/is a secret fabrication and test centre for US tech, including spy planes like the U-2 and the SR-71 Blackbird. To keep the Russians and locals away, elaborate stories were created and disseminated through the compliant media. This is ‘black ops’, meaning that only those who need to know, know, and disinformation is used to distract attention from what’s really going on. So there is little doubt that there are secret US miltech programs going on, probably hundreds of them, that the average US naval pilot, or politician, knows absolutely nothing about. And there almost certainly black ops programs happening right now in Southern California, which has a high density of US military and tech activity. But does this report’s publication help the black ops activities? Maybe, but only if the reality is so completely different to what we think we’re seeing. Otherwise, the publicity doesn’t make sense.
Occam rating: Plausible, but the publicity angle doesn’t add up.
3. Russian and/or Chinese tech
I read an article about quantum computing a couple of years back, and two of its key potential applications stuck with me: vaccine development and cracking encryption. In recent times, we’ve seen the Russian Covid vaccine come to market first, as well as Russian/Chinese hackers accessing the most secure and encrypted US government and commercial networks and databases, seemingly at will. Could it be that the Russians have cracked quantum computing? If so, this would also explain their recent, crazy military technology advances, from hypersonic missiles (years ahead of the US) to doomsday drones. Quantum computing would make it possible for the Russian and Chinese militaries to cooperate on completely new technologies, piloted aircraft and drones, that could evade US radar at will. And San Diego naval base would be of great interest to them. Given that both Russia and China are evil, despotic regimes, real-life Orwellian Big Brothers, this possibility is actually terrifying.
Occam rating: The simplest explanation, the most likely, the most unsettling of all.
Over to you
Is there another possible explanation that we’re missing? Let us know in the comments, or email firstname.lastname@example.org
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Wikipedia on Occam’s Razor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor
CNN on the UAP report: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/25/politics/ufo-report-pentagon-odni/index.html
YouTube, Quantum computing for dummies: https://youtu.be/lypnkNm0B4A
UAP still from US Department of Defense video.
SR-71, Wikipedia Commons.
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